Will Trump issue a veto by February 1, 2027?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump issues a veto at any point after market launch and on or before February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC. The market resolves to “Yes” if Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution by the deadline. A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. The market resolves to “No” if no such veto has occurred by the deadline. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. Acting or caretaker status does not change the resolution criteria. Rumors and unconfirmed media speculation do not qualify.Primary resolution sources: official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined by the deadline, the market will be voided.

Donald Trump is President of the United States. With Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress after the 2026 midterms, he is expected to face bills he opposes. This market asks whether he issues a veto by February 1, 2027 - or signs everything that reaches his desk.