Will the Fed hike rates again in 2026?

This market uses the upper bound of the target federal funds rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, after September 17, 2026 and through the completion of the Fed’s December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate above the 4.00% level set after the September 16, 2026 decision. Any official hike announced as a result of the December meeting counts. Multiple hikes still resolve to “Yes” .Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Holds, cuts, and statements that do not raise the official target range do not count as a hike. If a change is not a multiple of 25 basis points, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. A rounded increase of 25 bps or more counts as a hike.These outcomes are mutually exclusive - only one of them can resolve to Yes.The resolution is based on official FOMC statements and the Federal Reserve’s published target federal funds rate. The market may resolve as soon as an official hike above 4.00% is published after September 17, 2026, or after the December 2026 meeting if no such hike occurs. Primary resolution sources are the official FOMC statements and federalreserve.gov. If the December 2026 meeting does not take place and no official intermeeting rate action is published, and the outcome cannot be reasonably determined, the market will be voided.

The Fed raised the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023. Two scheduled FOMC meetings remain in 2026, in October and December. This market asks whether the Fed raises the upper bound above 4.00% again before year-end - or whether that September hike is the last one of 2026.