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“Israel holds elections on October 27, 2026. Polls put Netanyahu’s bloc short of 61 seats, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar as the main alternative, but the incumbent stays on as caretaker until a new government is sworn in. This market asks whether someone else is formally sworn in as Prime Minister - or Netanyahu otherwise leaves office - before 2027.”
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.“Ceases to be Prime Minister” means he is no longer the sitting Prime Minister of Israel. A public announcement of resignation, dismissal, or replacement that is later carried out will immediately resolve this market to Yes, even if the effective date of departure is after the announcement. An interim, caretaker, or acting continuation of Netanyahu after the October 27, 2026 election does not count as him being out. He remains Prime Minister for resolution purposes until another individual is formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister, or until Netanyahu has otherwise definitively left the office. If a new Prime Minister other than Netanyahu is formally sworn in on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, the market resolves Yes. If Netanyahu is still Prime Minister at that deadline - including as a caretaker after the election - the market resolves No. If earlier elections are called, the same standard applies: the market resolves based on whether Netanyahu has left the office by the deadline above. Primary resolution sources, in order of priority, are official information from the Prime Minister’s Office (pmo.gov.il / gov.il), the Knesset (knesset.gov.il), or the President of Israel; official statements by Netanyahu or the Knesset Speaker; and, if needed, a consensus of credible reporting (Times of Israel, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Reuters, AP). If no reliable determination can be made, the market will be voided and settle 50/50.
Israel holds elections on October 27, 2026. Polls put Netanyahu’s bloc short of 61 seats, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar as the main alternative, but the incumbent stays on as caretaker until a new government is sworn in. This market asks whether someone else is formally sworn in as Prime Minister - or Netanyahu otherwise leaves office - before 2027.