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This market uses the key ECB interest rates (primarily the deposit facility rate) set by the European Central Bank’s Governing Council. This market will resolve to the number of basis points by which the deposit facility rate changes after the ECB’s December 2026 monetary policy decision (scheduled for 17 December 2026) compared to the level before that decision. If the rate is not changed, the market resolves to “No change”. If the actual change is not a multiple of 25 basis points (for example, a cut or hike of 12.5 bps), it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and resolve to the corresponding bracket. 50+ bps decrease resolves to Yes if the deposit facility rate decreases by 50 or more basis points after the December 2026 Governing Council decision. 25 bps decrease resolves to Yes if the deposit facility rate decreases by exactly 25 basis points after the December 2026 Governing Council decision. No change resolves to Yes if the deposit facility rate remains unchanged after the December 2026 Governing Council decision. 25 bps increase resolves to Yes if the deposit facility rate increases by exactly 25 basis points after the December 2026 Governing Council decision. 50+ bps increase resolves to Yes if the deposit facility rate increases by 50 or more basis points after the December 2026 Governing Council decision. These outcomes are mutually exclusive - only one of them can resolve to Yes. The resolution is based on the official monetary policy decision published after the 17 December 2026 meeting. The market may resolve as soon as the official statement is published. The primary resolution sources are the official ECB Governing Council announcement and the published key ECB interest rates (available at ecb.europa.eu). If no Governing Council monetary policy decision takes place in December 2026 or no official statement is released in December 2026, the market will be voided and all outcomes will settle at 50/50.
Will the deposit facility rate increase by exactly 25 basis points after the December 2026 ECB Governing Council decision?